August 2018 Market Update – Supply between $200K-$250K has Risen 8.1% since May

Supply between $200K-$250K has Risen 8.1% since May
Seller Price Reductions Up 7% in Popular Price Range

For Buyers:
If your budget lies somewhere between $200,000 and $400,000 for a home, there’s good news for you.  Supply between $200,000 and $250,000 has been rising gradually over the past 12 weeks.  After dropping 15% from 2,300 listings in January to 1,944 in May, it has since risen 8.1% to 2,101 listings in August, placing it only 6.7% below last year’s count instead of 18% below like it was 3-4 months ago. Listings between $250,000 and $400,000 have also risen sharply 5.3% from 4,791 to 5,044 over the past 4 weeks, placing them only 0.2% below last year’s count of 5,053 listings. The increase in competition has resulted in a notable 7.3% increase in weekly seller price reductions from an average of 778 per week in June to 835 in July.  56% of year-to-date sales in Greater Phoenix have been between $200K-$400K so this increase in supply should come as a little bit of relief for the majority of buyers.

For Sellers:
If you have a home listed between $200,000 and $400,000, then you make up 48% of everything that’s listed in the MLS.  Listings under contract in this price range have averaged 7.4% higher in volume than 2017 all year, until now.  Over the last two weeks, including the end of July through the first week in August, listings in escrow have dropped to 2.2% below last year’s level.  Buyer activity is expected to slow seasonally from the peak in April through the end of the year; however open contracts have dropped 26% since the 2018 April peak compared to a lower 20% drop in 2017 over the same time frame; all while corresponding supply has been rising.  Sellers haven’t seemed to notice this sharper decline as their average asking price per square foot has soared from just 3% higher than last year in March to as high as 7% higher in July.  The average sales price per square foot was up 5.9% in July, compared to 4.6% in June.  However, price is a lagging responder to shifts in supply and demand. We will have to wait and see if buyers accommodate sellers’ price expectations given that they have more to choose from in the marketplace right now.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on August 12, 2018 at 11:21 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

May 2018 Market Report – Good time to List Luxury Properties

Supply between $175K-$200K dropped 18% in 3 Weeks
Summer is a good time to List Luxury Properties over $500K

For Buyers:
Supply under $200K has continued to drop rapidly, but the $175K-$200K range has accelerated its decline over the past month far more dramatically than any other price range. After being consistently 30-35% below last year, the active supply level dropped a whopping 18% in a 3-week period putting the current count for this group 44% below last year. Single family homes only make up 41% of active listings under $200K, but they account for 69% of actives between $175K-$200K. As more buyers are looking to condos and townhouses for affordable housing, supply for attached homes under $200K has dropped 33% over the last year. However, condo supply between $200K-$300K has actually risen 10% while single family homes in the same price point have dropped 15%.

For Sellers:
We are officially at the peak of the market seasonally for listings in escrow. Over the next few weeks, especially as temperatures reach over 100 degrees in the Valley, expect to see a gradual decline in buyer contracts that will continue through the end of the year. This is a seasonal trend that consistently happens every year and in every price point, even the frenzy market under $200K. The one exception is the luxury market over $500K. While it’s typical to see a decline at the beginning of Summer like everyone else, escrow counts tend to drop for a couple months and then go flat until the end of the year. In fact, luxury supply drops more than buyer activity does in the Summer making it a great time to list luxury property for those willing to brave the heat between June and September.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on May 15, 2018 at 10:11 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Market Updates - Cromford Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 2018 Market Update – Median Sale Price up $20,000 over March 2017

 

Median Sale Price up $20,000 over March 2017
17% of Sales are Closing Over Asking Price

For Buyers:
The percentage of seller concessions awarded to buyers has dropped down to 24% in the first quarter of 2018 after 2.5 years of consistently landing between 26%-28%, yet another indicator of dwindling buyer negotiating power in a prolonged supply shortage. The highest percentage of closings with seller concessions in the last 30 days were sale prices between $150K-$250K at 30-36%. Buyers were most likely to get closing costs in Youngtown at 54%, followed by Buckeye at 52%. Cities with the smallest percentage of closing costs were in affluent and retirement areas such as Paradise Valley, Sun City West and Sun Lakes at 2-3%.

For Sellers:
The percentage of successful sales over asking price is increasing. So far in March, 17% of sales closed over list price, last March it was 14%. Properties sold between $100K-$200K had the highest percentage at 24%, followed by the $200K-$300K range at 18%. The market between $300K-$1M is the most improved with 12% sold over list compared to only 7% last March. There were zero sales over list in the market over $1M. Areas with the highest percentage are El Mirage and Youngtown, both at 50%, followed by Tolleson with 45.5% of sales closing over asking price.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on March 16, 2018 at 4:41 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Market Updates - Cromford Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

February 2018 Market Update – Cromford Report

MLS Sales Over $1M up 36%
Inventory Under $150K Down 62%

For Buyers:
Buyers continue to have a tough time finding inventory on the low end of the market. New listings overall are down 9% year-to-date thus far, which doesn’t help matters. Compared to February last year, inventory under $150K is down 62% and down 43% between $150K and $200K. Mid-priced inventory between $200K and $500K is down 11% and down 7% between $500K and $1M. Only inventory over $1M is up nearly 2% over last year. Seller concessions are also down so far this year. After hovering around 27% for the past 2.5 years, closings with seller concessions dropped down to 23% as the seller market has strengthened in the new year. Homes sold between $150K and $200K had the highest percentage of seller concessions at 34%.

For Sellers:
Buyer season is ramping up as expected during this time of year. So far listings under contract are nearly dead even with 2017 levels at this time and are expected to continue rising through May. 2018 year-to-date sales are within 2% of the first 6 weeks of last year. Not surprisingly, MLS sales under $200K are down 21% due to low inventory. However, sales between $200K and $300K are up 14%, $300K and $500K are up 21%, $500K and $1M are up 20% and sales over $1M are up 36%.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Real Estate Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on February 20, 2018 at 11:55 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Market Updates - Cromford Reports | Tagged , ,