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Posted on May 2, 2019 at 5:11 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Seller Price Reductions up 46% and 61% in these Price Ranges

Supply Continues to Rise in the Middle
Seller Price Reductions up 46% and 61% in these Price Ranges

For Buyers:
Overall supply is down 9.6% compared to last September.  At first glance that’s nothing new.  However, for those of you who pay close attention to our monthly infographic (I know you’re out there), you have no doubt noticed that last May supply was down 15.5%, June supply was down 12.2%, July was down 11.1% and August was down 9.9% from last August.   What this means for buyers is that the Greater Phoenix market is still in short supply, but it’s subtly becoming less bad.  Most significantly, supply continues to increase between $200K-$400K.  Last month we reported an 8.1% increase in listings between $200K-$250K since May, that is now 9.7%.  Between $250K-$300K, supply has risen 15% in only 8 weeks.  Between $300K-$400K, supply has slowly risen 10% since January.  All other price ranges are either declining in supply or following their normal seasonal trends.  This is great news for buyers; more choice in the marketplace means less negotiating pressure. However, don’t expect sale prices to plummet anytime soon. The first price to respond to a supply shift isn’t a sale price, it’s a list price in the form of a price reduction.

For Sellers:
Despite the increase in supply between $200K-$250K, there hasn’t been a correlating increase in weekly list price reductions from sellers yet.  However that is not the case for the market between $250K-$300K where weekly list price reductions have risen 46% in the past 8 weeks and weekly reductions between $300K-$400K have risen 61% since January.  This is not an indicator that sellers are becoming desperate. Make no mistake, there are very few desperate sellers in this marketplace. There are, however, many optimistic sellers who may be taming their expectations. Average annual price appreciation per square foot remains between 3.5% – 5.0% for sales between $200K-$400K, so it’s still a seller’s market despite recent developments.  Expect prices to continue increasing at least through the remainder of 2018.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on September 11, 2018 at 4:51 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

July 2018 Market Report – Cost of Waiting to Buy Means Less Closet Space or Higher Payment

 

Cost of Waiting to Buy Means Less Closet Space or Higher Payment
More New Homes Sell in Low $200’s This Year

For Buyers:
Hearing cries for more affordable housing supply, developers have sold more new homes in the low $200’s this year; selling 35% more than they did last year within the same time frame. However, the under $200,000 market remains neglected for additional supply.  As of May 2018, only 6% of new homes sold were under $200,000, 37% were between $200,000 and $300,000 and 41% were between $300,000 and $500,000. This means that properties under $200,000 will continue to appreciate faster than any other price point and homes sold in this price range are only getting smaller.  The annual average home size sold between $100K -$200K, new and resale combined, is currently 1,390sf compared to 1,454sf last year.  That’s a loss of 64sf and roughly the size of a couple of closets.  Since 2014, the annual average home size sold has consistently hovered around 1,975sf.  Those buyers who didn’t want to sacrifice living space paid an average of $22,000 more for a 1,975sf home in the past year.

For Sellers:
Greater Phoenix is officially in the seasonal summer slowdown and contracts in escrow are expected to continue declining overall until the end of the year.  The peak of the market for contract activity usually hits at the end of April, as it did both this year and last year.  So far levels have dropped 17% from the peak, which is closely following last year’s drop of 18% between April and July.  If the 2018 market follows last year and previous years, we can expect contracts in escrow to drop about 4% per month until the end of the year.  This would be considered perfectly normal, anything more could indicate a non-seasonal drop in demand.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on July 9, 2018 at 3:26 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Market Updates - Cromford Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Is Greater Phoenix “Overvalued”?

Is Greater Phoenix “Overvalued”?
Mortgage Payments Are Lower Than They Were 13 Years Ago

For Buyers:
Interest rates have been increasing along with the inflation rate as of late, which has spawned a string of headlines about affordability. While the rate hike has knocked some buyers out of the market without a doubt, general affordability hasn’t taken a big hit yet.  According to the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo, buyers making the median family income could still afford 65% of what sold in the Valley last quarter.  A measure between 60-75% is considered normal.

Let’s look at the historical cost of a 1,900sf home in Greater Phoenix, for example.  In March 2005, a home that size would run $281K on average.  Today that same home would be $309K, $28,000 more (+10%).  However, the interest rate back then was 5.9% compared to 4.5% today, meaning that the principal and interest payment has dropped nearly $100 from where it was 13 years ago for the same home.  At the same time, the median family income rose from $58K to $69K according to HUD (+19%).  Which is why despite recent increases in interest rates, the affordability of real estate in the Valley is still considered very good.

For Sellers:
Last April CoreLogic released a report ranking the Greater Phoenix area as “overvalued”. In fact, they placed 37% of our nation’s top 100 metropolitan areas in that category.  As of May, after 6 years of higher-than-normal appreciation rates, the monthly average sales price per square foot has finally reached its place along the long-term 3% appreciation line established between 2000-2003 before the 2005 bubble and 2008 crash.  Meaning that if we had fallen asleep in 2003, and the last 15 years were just a long horrible dream, we would have woken up today and not known anything had happened.  Prices are where they would have been had the market followed the average long-term rate of inflation.  That brings to light that current appreciation rates of 6% or more are no longer sustainable in the long term.  However that doesn’t mean that prices will “peak” or “crash” anytime soon.  Most likely as demand slowly wanes, prices will go flat and hang out until they once again fall in line with the rate of inflation, but don’t expect that to happen in 2018.  Supply and demand measures today indicate another 3-6 months of positive appreciation for the majority of homes priced below $400K.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on June 14, 2018 at 4:49 am
Eric Karlene | Category: Market Updates - Cromford Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

When is the Phoenix Housing Market Going to Slow Down?

 

  • Even though median prices are within 98% of the peak, the fact that interest rates are so much lower today means that homes are still affordable.
  • The median family income has risen $11,000 since 2005, indication there is room for families to bear the increase in price.
  • Despite appreciation rates higher than the rate of inflation over the past 7 years, families making the median income could afford 65% of what sold in Greater Phoenix last quarter.
  • Overall Greater Phoenix home prices have finally reached where they are supposed to be historically and it’s expected to continue rising through the end of 2018.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

 

Posted on June 8, 2018 at 4:07 am
Eric Karlene | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

May 2018 Market Report – Good time to List Luxury Properties

Supply between $175K-$200K dropped 18% in 3 Weeks
Summer is a good time to List Luxury Properties over $500K

For Buyers:
Supply under $200K has continued to drop rapidly, but the $175K-$200K range has accelerated its decline over the past month far more dramatically than any other price range. After being consistently 30-35% below last year, the active supply level dropped a whopping 18% in a 3-week period putting the current count for this group 44% below last year. Single family homes only make up 41% of active listings under $200K, but they account for 69% of actives between $175K-$200K. As more buyers are looking to condos and townhouses for affordable housing, supply for attached homes under $200K has dropped 33% over the last year. However, condo supply between $200K-$300K has actually risen 10% while single family homes in the same price point have dropped 15%.

For Sellers:
We are officially at the peak of the market seasonally for listings in escrow. Over the next few weeks, especially as temperatures reach over 100 degrees in the Valley, expect to see a gradual decline in buyer contracts that will continue through the end of the year. This is a seasonal trend that consistently happens every year and in every price point, even the frenzy market under $200K. The one exception is the luxury market over $500K. While it’s typical to see a decline at the beginning of Summer like everyone else, escrow counts tend to drop for a couple months and then go flat until the end of the year. In fact, luxury supply drops more than buyer activity does in the Summer making it a great time to list luxury property for those willing to brave the heat between June and September.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on May 15, 2018 at 10:11 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Market Updates - Cromford Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

March 2018 Market Update – Median Sale Price up $20,000 over March 2017

 

Median Sale Price up $20,000 over March 2017
17% of Sales are Closing Over Asking Price

For Buyers:
The percentage of seller concessions awarded to buyers has dropped down to 24% in the first quarter of 2018 after 2.5 years of consistently landing between 26%-28%, yet another indicator of dwindling buyer negotiating power in a prolonged supply shortage. The highest percentage of closings with seller concessions in the last 30 days were sale prices between $150K-$250K at 30-36%. Buyers were most likely to get closing costs in Youngtown at 54%, followed by Buckeye at 52%. Cities with the smallest percentage of closing costs were in affluent and retirement areas such as Paradise Valley, Sun City West and Sun Lakes at 2-3%.

For Sellers:
The percentage of successful sales over asking price is increasing. So far in March, 17% of sales closed over list price, last March it was 14%. Properties sold between $100K-$200K had the highest percentage at 24%, followed by the $200K-$300K range at 18%. The market between $300K-$1M is the most improved with 12% sold over list compared to only 7% last March. There were zero sales over list in the market over $1M. Areas with the highest percentage are El Mirage and Youngtown, both at 50%, followed by Tolleson with 45.5% of sales closing over asking price.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Posted on March 16, 2018 at 4:41 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Market Updates - Cromford Reports | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Past Successes!

Posted on February 28, 2018 at 7:02 pm
Eric Karlene | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , ,